My QB Has Moxie

Rivals profiled the effect the Tuesday’s MLB draft will have on the Oregon State baseball team.  You have to pay money to read it.  Lucky for you I don’t hold my faithful reader(s) to that standard.  At any rate, some notes I was surprised to see:

• Not only is Jorge Reyes probably leaving, he is most likely to be the first Beaver selected.
• Greg Peavey is actually draft-eligible as a true sophomore since he will turn 21 within 45 days of the draft.
• Maybe not too surprisingly, Oregon State has a very good recruiting class.  There is a very good chance their class will again be hurt by MLB signings as it has been the past couple years.
• A couple of football signees, Jordan Poyer and Kyrell Hudson, may very well bypass their college baseball and football careers and sign with a major league team.

The analysis on potential team and signee departures after the jump.  Also, Kerry Eggers has a nice post-season profile on the OSU baseball program.  

Current Draft Eligible OSU Players

Jorge Reyes
It is going to surprise some folks, but most projections I am seeing have Jorge, and not Ryan Ortiz, as the first Beaver taken despite Oritz having the better season by a wide margin. Baseball America has him rated their #167 draft prospect, and the range of projections I am finding seems to be from 3rd to 6th round. Scouts like his fastball and view the slider as a solid second pitch, but don’t seem to feel good about him having a quality 3rd pitch – leading to speculation by some scouts that he’s perhaps better suited for the bullpen. His sophomore year particularly, and parts of his junior year have confused scouts a bit after being looked at as a possible future 1st rounder after his freshman year. Despite the stupid backyard gun incident last year, he is viewed to be a good kid and solid citizen. The interesting wrinkle will be that Jorge is being advised by the dreaded (by MLB teams) Scott Boras, and there is some speculation that the Boras connection may scare some teams away due to concerns of signability, since teams do view there to be several RHP in his skill range available this year. Therefore, it also would not be a surprise to see him slide past Ortiz, depending on the perception of his financial demands to sign. Might those demands be enough to end up sending him back to OSU for another year? I would definitely not bank on it, but you never know.

Ryan Ortiz
On the plus side, good college catchers historically tend to go earlier than perhaps they should simply because good catching is so hard to find. On the down side, this is viewed as a good year for catching prospects so there is a lot of quality competition at his position. Considered solid defensively, but in need of some polish, and not viewed to have a great arm, but does draw kudos for his very quick release and accuracy on the throw to second, which compensates for the lack of dominant arm strength. Depending on whom you listen two, he either has a flaw in his swing that scares some teams or has a swing that with a bit of tweaking could lead to decent doubles power at the MLB level, but over-all scouts see little HR potential. The consensus seems to be that his up side is more along the lines of a solid #2 catcher at the MLB level – no glaring weaknesses, but no tools that truly stand out as “plus” attributes. Now, that projection is not all bad, despite some maybe taking it as an insult. However, the scouts are seeing the difference that I think most OSU fans would see that exists between Ortiz and Canham. There’s no shame in someone saying you’re not at Mitch Canham’s level, and being a rung or two down the latter hardly means you’re chopped liver. All that said, 3th to 6th round seems to be the time to look for him to have his name called.

Kraig Sitton
Scouts love the lefty pitchers, and while he is still pretty much a beanpole (6′5″, 190lbs.), he has a body that some project to fill out and be a major asset (others, of course, worry he will not fill out). For a kid that was still pitching JV ball at a less than loaded high school as a junior, and was only throwing 83-85 as a senior, he’s come a long way already and is a testament to both the eye for potential on Coach Casey’s staff and the ability of the OSU staff to develop pitchers. The growth from throwing 85-87 last year to 88-91 this year has some thinking he has the ability to be a starter at the next level if he continues to develop physically – but that physical projection is a lot of the question. As a RS-Soph with two years of eligibility left, the cards are decidedly in Kraig’s favor, as he can return next year and parlay a strong junior year into bigger and better things in the 2010 draft. Depending on how decisive he is about returning to school, he could conceivably go before round 10 if teams think he is signable, but I think he will go later than that. Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that he will return and load up for bigger and better things next year.

Adalberto Santos
Given the numbers he put up, had he been healthy this year, he would be drawing a lot more heat than he has. Toronto took him in the 17th round in 2007 after a monster JC season and he signed, only to see the contract voided due to the injury issue that saw him sit out the 2008 season. After again missing time during 2009 due to that same shoulder injury, I think teams will be cautious. Spending much of the year in the DH role also will likely want teams to see what he can do in the field. He has a very good bat and good speed, but can he hold up and where do you play him will be the questions. In terms of draft rounds, nothing from round 10 to the late 20’s would surprise me, as it is so hard to guess how much the negatives (position & health) will scare the scouts away from the positives. Unless there is a surprise and he goes earlier than expected, he seems to be a player that could do a lot with a healthy and productive senior year to improve his stock for the 2010 draft even though he’ll be short on leverage as a 5th year senior. Since he is slated to play in the vaunted Cape Cod league, he may be a player that could use a great summer to play his way into a better bonus offer.

Joey Wong
Short on some tools (hasn’t show a great bat, his arm projects better at 2B than SS, and slow for his size), but obviously has a tremendous glove. He’s one of those players that scouts seem to either love as a sleeper or dismiss – those that love him point to that more intangible “it” factor that some guys have that make you say “ok, that kid is a ballplayer and I want him on my team”, others see mostly a light bad, average arm, and bad speed. Again, depending on the vibes he is sending out about signability, early teens to mid 20’s seems to be the guess. For a bit of a comparison, Chris Kunda (who had an even better glove and a bit more speed) went in the 19th round (but is now out of pro ball because of his bat). A lot will come down simply to how much Joey values the college experience as he will be taken early enough that it would not be crazy to go, but he will not stand to lose a lot if he stays for his senior year, as he will not likely be looking at big bonus money.

Greg Peavey
After being viewed as a potential very early round pick during his HS career, a down senior year and high money demands pushed him to the 24th round of the 2007 draft, and at the time, expectations were that after two years at OSU he’d be primed to go early in the 2009 draft. Unfortunately for Greg (and OSU), the development hasn’t materialized as expected, but one never knows if a scout is going to remain enamored with the tools and convince his team to pull the trigger earlier than you’d think. Ultimately, since he retains negotiating leverage even if he comes back for another year, he would be far better served by returning and it is assumed he will.

Others
A number of others will obviously be selected, but none is likely to go in the first half of the draft.

Of our recruits, who is likely to be drafted & when?

Andrew Susac
Almost certainly the first player with OSU ties that will be off the board. Very strong crop of HS catchers this year, which may push him a little lower in the draft that he might have gone in some other years. Various lists have him between 65 and 120 on their top prospect lists. His major calling card is an incredible throwing arm – great strength with a lightning fast release that has drawn favorable comparisons to even MLB greats like Johnny Bench. Viewed to be strong defensively all-around with good athleticism. The question lies with his bat, which is not considered to be as polished as his defense. Considered to have solid HR potential, but needs to refine his balance and timing at the plate. All told, 2nd or 3rd round is the expectation.

Kyrell Hudson
Scouts love his athleticism and blinding speed. Good defensively, covers a lot of ground in CF, and has a strong arm (some think that as a fallback he could be converted to a pitcher). There are, however, major questions about his bat. Still very raw at the plate and seems to mostly be getting by on his athleticism, and can look over-matched against good pitching. One scout summed up the extent of his concern about his bat by saying “I’ve never seen a guy steal first base”. Additionally, there are some questions about how much he actually likes baseball – some scouts have observed that does not show a lot of fire, lacks constant hustle, and at times showed up late for games. The athleticism and potential will be too much for someone to pass up, even if he is considered a “project” at the plate, and he seems to be likely to hear his name called in that 3rd to 5th round range.

Jordan Poyer
Not quite as athletic as Hudson, but still considered very athletic and viewed to have more natural baseball skills and instincts. Scouts like his swing and see some power potential. Has not had the exposure of a Susac or Hudson, but some feel that with a strong showing in his final pre-draft workouts he could slide into the later part of the single-digit rounds.

Tony Bryant
Bryant came into the year considered by most to be the top high school pitching prospect in the Northwest, but less than peak conditioning and a drop in velocity this spring has lowered his stock. At 6′7″ and having at times last summer touched 95, he is a player that the scouts know has more in there than he has shown this spring. Truthfully, I don’t at all have a good feel for how early he may go but he should be one of the first half-dozen recruits drafted.

Others
Again, there will be a number of others that hear their name called, but this is already too long…