My QB Has Moxie

The University of Oregon controls their own destiny in the chase for the Pac-10 title.  They win out and they are in.  Their remaining games?  The University of Arizona and your Oregon State Beavers.  The race for the Rose Bowl is somewhat complicated or could be, rather.  It is possible that three teams finish with two losses in conference.  For this to happen, Oregon has to lose one more game.  The top of the Pac-10 currently sits like this:

1. Oregon 6-1 (@ UA, vs. OSU)
2. Stanford 6-2 (vs. Cal)
3. Oregon State 5-2 (@ WSU, @ UO)
4. Arizona 4-2 (vs. UO, @ ASU, @ USC)

The conference can’t finish with four two-loss teams since both Oregon State and Arizona play Oregon.  If a three way tie occurs, the best case scenario for the Beavers is (of course win out) to have the tie be with Oregon and Stanford so they would have the tie breakers.  If OSU is tied with Arizona they will own the tie breaker over them due to Arizona’s victory over the Beavers in Corvallis earlier this season.  SO…do we want Arizona to lose to Oregon and therefore removing them from the conversation?  If that was the case it would be between Stanford, OSU, and UO.  Great, right?  Well, yes and no.  I will be rooting for Arizona to beat Oregon and then root for USC or ASU to beat the Wildcats in their last two games.  If that happened that would essentially eliminate Oregon from Rose Bowl contention (assuming Stanford beats Cal).  If, say, Arizona beats Oregon, Oregon State beats Washington State, and Stanford beats Cal the Pac-10 standings would look like this:

1. Oregon 6-2 (vs. OSU)
2. Stanford 7-2 (no Pac-10 games remaining)
3. Oregon State 6-2 (@ UO)
4. Arizona 5-2 (@ASU, @ USC)

Make sense yet?  If Arizona then lost one of their next two games they are automatically out as UO or OSU and Stanford would all be guaranteed to have better records.  Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl if UO beats OSU.  Oregon State would go to the Rose Bowl if they beat Oregon.  The Beavers would be tied with the Cardinal but own a tie breaker due to a head to head tie breaker advantage.  If Oregon beat OSU they would be in a tie with Stanford for first place in the conference and Stanford would get the Rose Bowl birth due to a head to head tie breaker advantage over Oregon.  So now, assuming OSU beat Oregon and Arizona lost to USC, the final Pac-10 standings would look like this:

1. Oregon State 7-2 (9-3 overall)
2. Stanford 7-2 (9-3)
3. Arizona 6-3 (8-4)
4. Oregon 6-3 (8-4)
5. USC 6-3 (9-3)
6. Cal 5-4 (8-4)
7. UCLA 3-6 (6-6)
8. Washington 3-6 (4-8)
9. Arizona State 2-7 (4-8)
10. Washington State 0-9 (1-11)

For me, this is the best-case scenario.  Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl and Oregon tumbles down the Pac-10 standings with two losses to end the season.  Some have stated that they want Oregon to win so Oregon State can be the team that shatters their Rose Bowl hopes.  I would rather just ensure Oregon gets nowhere near the Rose Bowl period.  But I hate Oregon and that’s just me.

For this weekend at least, GO WILDCATS!